Social and creative decision making

Research on human decision making is at the present time undergoing rapid changes. From previously being much focused on models and approaches with an origin in economy, much of the present day research finds its inspiration from disciplinary approaches concerned with incorporating more of the context that the decision making takes place in. This context includes psychological aspects of the decision maker and social-cultural aspects of the situation he or she acts in. All human decision making occurs in dynamically changing contexts. One factor contributing to this is that human beings or groups in many situations act as entrepreneurs trying to improve the situation for themselves or their organization. Given that this is the case, it is of increasing interest for both researchers and practitioners interested in the social aspects of decision making to consider the relation between creativity and decision making

The Nuclear Window to the Extragalactic Universe

We investigate two recent parameterizations of the galactic magnetic field with respect to their impact on cosmic nuclei traversing the field. We present a comprehensive study of the size of angular deflections, dispersion in the arrival probability distributions, multiplicity in the images of arrival on Earth, variance in field transparency, and influence of the turbulent field components. To remain restricted to ballistic deflections, a cosmic nucleus with energy E and charge Z should have a rigidity above E/Z=6 EV. In view of the differences resulting from the two field parameterizations as a measure of current knowledge in the galactic field, this rigidity threshold may have to be increased. For a point source search with E/Z>60 EV, field uncertainties increase the required signal events for discovery moderately for sources in the northern and southern regions, but substantially for sources near the galactic disk.Comment: 15 pages, 30 figures, few additional sentences and references as in accepted publicatio

Firm Entry and Exit in Local Markets: Market Pull and Unemployment Push

Firm entry and exit flows in the retailing and consumer services may be viewed as market equilibrating processes. Local markets with considerable market room and high unemployment ought to be characterized by high subsequent entry rates and low exit rates. However, lack of entrepreneurial alertness may inhibit this. We examine the relationship and obtain empirical results for a range of selected industries in 563 Belgian municipalities. We show that, over a three-year period, (net) entry is positively affected by the presence of local 'market room' and also by future market pull. We find 'unemployment push' effect on entry in easy-to-enter industries, but also a significant effect of unemployment on exit.Entrepreneurship; Entry; Exit; Entrepreneurship; Unemployment

Entry thresholds and actual entry and exit in local markets

Bresnahan and Reiss (1991) derive entry thresholds (equilibrium numbers of firms) for local markets but do not investigate actual entry and exit flows. This paper investigates for thirteen Belgian retail and service industries whether markets with actual numbers of firms higher (lower) than the thresholds display exit (entry) in subsequent periods.industrial organization ;

Stroboscopic prethermalization in weakly interacting periodically driven systems

Time-periodic driving provides a promising route to engineer non-trivial states in quantum many-body systems. However, while it has been shown that the dynamics of integrable systems can synchronize with the driving into a non-trivial periodic motion, generic non-integrable systems are expected to heat up until they display a trivial infinite-temperature behavior. In this paper we show that a quasi-periodic time evolution over many periods can also emerge in systems with weak integrability breaking, with a clear separation of the timescales for synchronization and the eventual approach of the infinite-temperature state. This behavior is the analogue of prethermalization in quenched systems. The synchronized state can be described using a macroscopic number of approximate constants of motion. We corroborate these findings with numerical simulations for the driven Hubbard model.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, published versio

Death and Suicide in Universal Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a general paradigm for studying intelligent behaviour, with applications ranging from artificial intelligence to psychology and economics. AIXI is a universal solution to the RL problem; it can learn any computable environment. A technical subtlety of AIXI is that it is defined using a mixture over semimeasures that need not sum to 1, rather than over proper probability measures. In this work we argue that the shortfall of a semimeasure can naturally be interpreted as the agent's estimate of the probability of its death. We formally define death for generally intelligent agents like AIXI, and prove a number of related theorems about their behaviour. Notable discoveries include that agent behaviour can change radically under positive linear transformations of the reward signal (from suicidal to dogmatically self-preserving), and that the agent's posterior belief that it will survive increases over time.Comment: Conference: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) 2016 13 pages, 2 figure